During the last few weeks, the written press and television news shows present the public with numerous specialists in finance and international trade who constantly comment on the facts related to what is now called "commercial war". In the meantime, busy readers and viewers, immersed in the maelstrom of their personal routine, wonder if it will be that other warning of the "end of the world"; as we have been used to some of these media for many years.
If we feel some concern regarding the tone with which the above mentioned specialists approach the issue and if we believe that we must do something to protect our families and ourselves from a discouraging economic landscape, then I think it is appropriate that we begin by understanding that It is what is happening, that is, knowing what is the core of the problem.
At this time, companies and institutions around the world are paying juicy checks to receive professional advice from the most ranked experts in the world in order to design a strategy that allows them to draw a course of action in which they can follow their path with the least number of obstacles. I imagine that the most prudent thing is to, at least, adequately inform us about the subject. If, so far, you agree with me, I invite you to continue reading.
Let's start by pointing out the global economic outlook indicated by IMF several months ago.
Go to: WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - International Monetary Fund
These are pretty accurate predictions about statistics such as Gross Domestic Product (national production) and inflation for all the economies of the planet; I think it would be enough for us to know that very few times these gentlemen are wrong, I repeat, very rarely. The summary of these global predictions, for the Gross Domestic Product statistics, we can indicate very briefly in this way.
Go to: WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - International Monetary Fund
These are pretty accurate predictions about statistics such as Gross Domestic Product (national production) and inflation for all the economies of the planet; I think it would be enough for us to know that very few times these gentlemen are wrong, I repeat, very rarely. The summary of these global predictions, for the Gross Domestic Product statistics, we can indicate very briefly in this way.
- Projection of the product growth rate for each of the world's economies in the short term: positive
- Projection of the product growth rate for each of the world's economies in the long term: indeterminate
In reality, just under 10 economies around the globe would show a negative projection of growth in the short term. Therefore, this can be considered as an accurate projection.
On the other hand, it is estimated that a projection of long-term growth is indeterminate because we can not know precisely the future.
It is almost impossible for us to find a long-term growth projection that signals a positive value; but it is possible to find projections of long-term economic growth that point to a negative result, such as, for example, at the beginning of a military conflict.
Even the IMF has not indicated the prospects for economic growth for a "commercial war" scenario, however, I am sure that those familiar with the issue will agree with the following proposal:
- Projection of the product growth rate for each of the world's economies in the short term: indeterminate.
- Projection of the product growth rate for each of the world's economies in the long term: indeterminate
- Projection of the growth rate of the global product of the planet in the long term: negative.
According to what is indicated here, it is evident that "commercial wars" are going to have dire consequences for millions of people throughout the world. We will not have these effects "for a single moment" but they are applicable during the short term and the long term.
On the other hand, long-term predictions involve the emergence of winners and losers; that is, we could see economies that will be growing at rates above 5% per year and others that will be contracting at rates of similar magnitude, that is: -5% per year. That is to say, the incentives will have been created so that the commercial policies and the commercial negotiations have characteristics of dispossession, plunder or looting.
Undoubtedly, this is a scenario that does not attract the majority of ordinary people, but it is an ideal environment for adventurers, opportunists, greedy and conspirators.
In a forthcoming publication I will be commenting on the origin and context of the "commercial war".
Its origin is clearly located in the USA and is complemented by the reaction being adopted by other industrial economies, such as China and others located in Europe. In addition, we will try to establish why the "commercial war" appears and what needs to be met.
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