Two characteristics of the current commercial war: unpublished and ineffective.

The current commercial war is unprecedented because, for the first time, it appears within a context of globalization and under international trade rules established under the imperfect free trade scheme. Another element that gives this trade war a new character is that it now loses the condition of being bi- national and becomes global because, at the moment, the productive processes present a high degree of linkage between many national economies; in such a way that such confrontation will impact, in the long term and indirectly, on hundreds of sectors of productive activity located within dozens of countries.

On a planet whose economic activity is marked by free trade, the chain of productive activities and globalization; It seems, in theory, unlikely that a commercial war that has global reach. This can only happen if the nation that initiates hostilities has a power to purchase imported goods of colossal magnitude whose origin does not come from international commercial activity but from global financial activity, but, not only this is enough, it would also require that this nation It does not have a high degree of integration with global value chains.

The current commercial war is also ineffective because it will not allow the nation to initiate hostilities to achieve the objectives set by the protectionist trade strategy adopted for these purposes. Quite simply, the reduction of the trade deficit does not generate economic growth and, therefore, does not improve working conditions or raise wages.

Undoubtedly, a high trade deficit causes concern for economic agents, but it is not a phenomenon that requires immediate attention because the behavior of the trade balance depends on the economic structure of the nation in question, which, in turn , is determined by the competitive advantages she possesses. Obviously, it is a circumstance that is impossible lo alter in the short term.

There is no evidence to certify that the massive application of tariffs reduces the trade deficit; It has only been possible to confirm that the rise in tariffs creates captive markets that are exploited by domestic producers to increase their profit rate inordinately.

However, even so, it is expected that the application, in the USA, of successive batteries of tariff increases will eventually cause, in the long term, the contraction of imports carried out by that nation. This reduction would be the result of the disappearance of the North American market of those foreign products that are not very competitive or have a low level of added value. In the same way, the proliferation of expectations and uncertainties within the operation of the North American commercialization channels will also expel foreign products from the Yankee showcases because foreign companies that intervene in supply and production chains will not be able to properly plan the production.

Go to: Marketing91 - Definition of marketing channels

So, in the long term, despite the reduction in imports, the US trade deficit cannot be expected to improve since the global economic crisis caused by the new coupling of global value chains will cause contraction. of North American exports.

This is how, in the short term, the volume of US imports must show great rigidity and should not react to the first waves of tariff increases. This rigidity rests on the immense purchasing power that Americans have for the purpose of acquiring goods of foreign origin. This purchasing power is created by wage differences and differences in the rate of productivity that exist between the US economy and the rest of the world. In addition to this, the overvaluation of the dollar allows the North American consumer to acquire more foreign products.