Saturday, August 3, 2019

Definition of current commercial war

Below are some definitions of commercial warfare.

Wikipedia
The commercial war consists in the adoption by one or several countries of tariffs or barriers to trade with one or several third countries. This term is antonym for free trade. Economists as a rule believe that this type of war is very unproductive, with a great negative influence on the social and economic welfare of the nations involved; However, political scientists consider the threat posed by a trade war as an important aid in obtaining concessions of other types.

Go to: Wikipedia - Trade War

Economic zone
A trade war is a situation in which two or more countries take measures to restrict imports from the other country, to protect local industry. Generally, trade wars begin when a country increases its import tariffs. The producers of the goods reached by the increase of the tariffs, in the exporting countries, are harmed because their products become more expensive in the country that initiated the commercial war.

Go to: Economic Zone - Trade War

Investopedia
A trade war occurs when one country retaliates against another by increasing import tariffs or by imposing other restrictions on imports from the opposite country. A tariff is a tax or duty imposed on goods imported into a nation. In a global economy, a trade war can be very damaging to consumers and businesses in both nations, and contagion can grow and affect many aspects of both economies.
Trade wars are a side effect of protectionism, which are government actions and policies that restrict international trade. A country will generally take protectionist actions with the intention of protecting national companies and jobs from foreign competition. Protectionism is also a method used to balance trade deficits. A trade deficit occurs when a country's imports exceed the amounts of its exports.

Go to: Investopedia - Trade War

BusinessDictionary.com
Conflict between two or more nations regarding trade tariffs with each other. This type of conflict generally arises because the nations involved are trying to improve imports or exports for their own country. Trade wars have the potential to increase the costs of certain imports if the nations involved refuse to make a commitment.

Go to: BusinessDictionary.com - Trade War

Trade wars are intended to be justified by means of arguments that point to economic and social goals as a fundamental objective of the countries involved in the confrontation, but, given that these motives are not credible, it is possible to assume that their true origins are political. These presumed political intentions generally cannot be determined precisely because the game of power interests prevents them from transcending into the public sphere.



Modern history suggests that the trade wars undertaken by some European nations during the 18th and 19th centuries can be interpreted as the effort of the political factors involved in preserving the metropolis-colony link.

In the same way, we can dare to affirm that, the unilateral increase in tariffs carried out by the United States during the 19th century, rather than an economic growth strategy or world domination strategy, was the answer to the strong political pressures brought carried out by American circles of power that wished to make the most of the colossal economic growth that the nation experienced at that time.



Another example is the process of establishing high tariffs that occurred immediately after World War II and carried out by most of the underdeveloped economies: rather than reaching economic and social development goals, as proclaimed by the discourse proposed by Development Theories, they created captive markets that could be easily exploited by inefficient producers associated with the circles of political power of these backward nations.

For sure, it is impossible to determine, right now, what could be the political ends that trigger the reappearance of the trade war in the 21st century. However, the most sensible proposals point to the desire of the status quo to stop globalization, or well, contain the thrust that has been dragging the digital economy and even, we can not rule out the intention that a Fourth Industrial Revolution does not appear.



In the past, trade wars did not trigger economic crises. In reality, the negative impact of trade wars was limited to specific areas of the economy. However, the 21st century trade war threatens to create a global economic crisis by forcing the world's productive structures to make a substantial change in their operation.

Proponents of the 21st century trade war claim that the global economic crisis will not affect the US economy, but that it will benefit from the flow of investment and import substitution. However, several examples reveal that, in a situation of global crisis, investors' fears reach even the strongest economies. In addition, the United States is not able to carry out a process of import substitution, for this it would require massive robotization and mass migration.

As we see, we are in the presence of the first commercial war that will generate a global economic crisis.

On the other hand, the conduct of the commercial rivals of the nation that starts the commercial war is notorious. China, Mexico and some European countries, faced with the US position, assumed a position of confrontation and not of conciliation; knowing the consequences of corresponding to the "commercial aggressions" of the USA.

Again, the now commercial rivals of the USA, are assuming a political position and enter into a strategy that, while extremely dangerous, can give them a lot of benefit. Obviously, the now commercial rivals of the USA lack the capacity to respond to the rise in tariffs carried out by the USA, but, by transforming the commercial war into a financial war, they can do a great deal of damage to the US economy: the Federal Reserve is not capable to protect the United States from a financial war because this confrontation would attack the operating structures of the international financial system. These "financial attacks" should be linked to the use of the dollar as a currency for international use and the acquisition of US financial assets.



Undoubtedly, right now, Chinese, European and Mexican advisors must be very busy calculating the aftermath of the financial war and how to treasure its benefits.

Soon I will be writing about the fundamental characteristics of the 21st century trade war.

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